The north star
Assess NovaPay ahead of renewal, tell the symptoms from the root cause, and lay out a 30/60/90 plan that earns the renewal and opens the expansion. The short version: three rules are drowning the team - 47% of the alert queue at ~90% false positives. Fix those, fix the device-data signal underneath, and the account turns.
OTP step-up · rules 1 · 5 · 8 (the noisy 47%)
Auto-decline · rule 10 (network signal)
Device fix · rule 2 (iOS 18 / Android 15)
What if the friction isn't as costly as we feared?
Our base case charges every good customer we route to an OTP a steep 50% chance of churning. Drag it toward what the industry actually sees on a step-up, and watch the Day-90 exposure cross into the black.
50% · Conservative
25% · Moderate
15% · Step-up est.
50% churn assumption
-$104K
Day-90 Net ROI exposure / 2 wks
Net ROI exposure across the plan · /2wks · moves with the slider
Industry step-up abandonment runs ~10-25% (SMS OTP at the higher end, biometric/passkey lower); 15% is a conservative mid-point - and abandonment overstates true churn, since many who drop one challenge come back. Anchors: Baymard ~19% abandonment from an added checkout step; 3DS2 frictionless flow clears ~80-85% of transactions, so only the risky minority is ever challenged.
Manual queue · /2wks
3,968 → 2,097 · -47% | fraud caught 1,470 → 1,477, leaked 39 → 34
Review run-rate · $K/yr
$310K → $168K · -46% | ~$140K/yr back to the team
